History teaches us how to manage risk

In this first essay in the Globe’s Futures @ Risk series, Dr. Mussio and Dr. Pacciani argue that effective risk management requires integrating historical consciousness with modern analytical tools. Exploring historical and modern examples, the authors show how overreliance on narrow, short-term models and “leader-centric” decision-making leaves systems vulnerable to rare but devastating shocks. They suggest that organizations that deliberately preserve, teach, and apply historical lessons—pairing computational power with long-term perspective—are best positioned to navigate instability and avoid failure in the face of catastrophe.