Turning Historical Experience into Judgment.

In the fourth and final installment of the Futures @ Risk series published in The Globe and Mail, Dr. Laurence B. Mussio and Dr. Cosimo Pacciani use two parallel maritime catastrophes, one in 1816 and one in 2012, to argue that many great disasters are caused not by unknown risks, but by known dangers that institutions choose to ignore. Citing other examples where warnings were recorded, filed, and forgotten, the authors note that institutions excel at producing data and reports but fail at converting experience into action. The authors define this missing capability as “Mnemonic Capital”—an institution’s living capacity to turn historical experience into present judgment—and examine ways this can be achieved.

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The Ghost in the Machine is outpacing the real world.

In this third “Futures @ Risk” essay, Dr. Laurence B. Mussio and Dr. Cosimo Pacciani use art and history to argue that modern society is governed by “Ghost Intelligence”: fast, automated digital systems that operate without the institutional memory needed to understand their physical foundations. While economies have optimized for algorithms, finance, and cloud computing, they have neglected the “Body” of civilization—energy grids, supply chains, materials, and infrastructure—leaving systems vulnerable to adversarial risks in what thinkers describe as a new era where risk is deliberately weaponized. The authors discuss the broader lessons and implications.

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Canada has become a place to be from – and opera can teach us a lesson

Writing in The Globe and Mail, Dr. Laurence B. Mussio recalls a childhood memory of seeing La Traviata in Sarnia and observes how opera can reveal deeper truths about society. While preparing to attend the Canadian Opera Company’s performance of Rigoletto in Toronto, Dr. Mussio notes that Rigoletto actually offers a powerful metaphor for Canada’s current economic and cultural condition.

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Why we forget lessons learned from collapsed bridges, burned towns and financial crises

In their second “Futures @ Risk” essay in The Globe and Mail, Dr. Laurence B. Mussio and Dr. Cosimo Pacciani note the existence of a “strategic amnesia” which allows institutions to document dangers without acting on them. They argue that while disasters often show a recurring pattern, knowledge becomes fragmented across bureaucratic silos, no one is responsible for synthesizing warnings into action, and economic incentives reward continuing operations rather than pausing to address risk. The authors propose various mechanisms to help avoid preventable catastrophes.

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Can ambition triumph over stagnation in Carney’s Ottawa?

In this op-ed, Dr. Mussio observes that Canada excels at creating capital and talent but loses both abroad. Of the $2.3 trillion held by major pension funds, only 25 percent is invested domestically. He argues that weak growth opportunities, regulatory uncertainty, and limited scale are widening Canada’s productivity gap by driving investors and skilled workers to the U.S.—but there are ways to reverse this trend so capital and talent choose to stay and grow the economy at home.

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Canada’s money lives in exile. We’re rich abroad, but starved at home

In this op-ed, Dr. Mussio observes that Canada excels at creating capital and talent but loses both abroad. Of the $2.3 trillion held by major pension funds, only 25 percent is invested domestically. He argues that weak growth opportunities, regulatory uncertainty, and limited scale are widening Canada’s productivity gap by driving investors and skilled workers to the U.S.—but there are ways to reverse this trend so capital and talent choose to stay and grow the economy at home.

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At the G7, Canada’s globalist ambitions put our domestic problems in stark contrast

In this article, Dr. Mussio argues that Carney’s surprise victory at the polls preserved the influence of Canada’s Laurentian elite. However, as this elite now presides over an economy facing stagnation, a housing crisis, innovation decline, and flawed energy policy, Carney must act quickly: the election win is not a mandate but a narrow window to enact real change – such as a national productivity commission, fiscal reform, productivity-focused immigration policy, and intergenerational policy assessments – before disillusionment empowers a new opposition.

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New Report: “Applying History to Inform Anticipatory AI Governance”

SIERC is pleased to share an important new report from RAND Corporation and Dr. Mussio in his role as Chair of the Long Run Institute: “Applying History to Inform Anticipatory AI Governance: Using Foresight and Hindsight to Inform Policymaking.” This publication represents the culmination of a two-year collaboration between RAND and the LRI, bringing together Nobel Prize Winner Dr. Robert J. Lempert and Dr. Jonathan W. Welburn with Professor Michael Aldous and Dr. Laurence B. Mussio to explore how historical analysis can inform AI governance frameworks.

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A new nationalisum is emerging in Canada

Dr. Laurence B. Mussio, writing for The Globe and Mail, examines historical and contemporary expressions of Canadian nationalism in response to external threats, drawing parallels between the 19th and 21st centuries. With specific examples he argues that Canada’s historical resilience in the face of existential threats suggests a capacity for unity and sacrifice, even in a modern context where economic dependency on the U.S. poses challenges to independence.

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Decoding Trump’s trade strategy: The historical pattern beneath the headlines

In this article Dr. Mussio and Dr. Suesse analyze the underlying logic of Donald Trump’s trade policies through three competing interpretations: a Bluff Thesis, a Reckless Driver Theory and as a Geopolitical Realignment Strategy. However, they also suggest that Trump’s policies are less about foreign threats and more about punishing “globalist” elites within the U.S., echoing other historical patterns. Ultimately, economic nationalism isn’t an anomaly but a recurring force, and businesses and policymakers must recognize and adapt to these cycles.

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